Oliver’s insights – Investment outlook Q&A – Tariff man & Aust exports, the RBA, $A & gold

12 February

Key points Trump’s tariff war has potentially another 6-9 months to go at least. This poses an ongoing threat to shares, but their relative resilience so far risks emboldening Trump to do even more. Even if Australian exports are not exempted...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – More Trump tariffs (and deals) – implications for investors and Australia

5 February

Key points US President Trump has announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China and is threatening more tariffs. The one-month delay to tariffs with Canada & Mexico is a sign they may be averted, but the uncertainty with more tariffs likely means...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – What’s driven the fall in the $A? – Does it threaten inflation and RBA easing?

22 January

Key points The $A has been hit since September by the return of Trump, a hawkish pivot by the Fed versus the RBA and concerns about the outlook for iron ore prices. We doubt the fall is significant enough to boost inflation much and...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – More volatile and constrained – the macro investment outlook for 2025

15 January

Key points 2024 was another strong year for investors with shares up strongly on the back of better than feared growth & profits and global central banks cutting rates. Volatility was low and balanced growth super funds returned around 11%. 2025...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Australia’s falling living standards – what’s driving it and how to fix it

18 December

Key points – Falling real wages and a surge in tax and interest payments have led to a slump in Australian living standards. – But a broader driver of the malaise in living standards has been a slump in productivity growth from over 2% pa in...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Goldilocks stayed for 2024, but what’s in store for investors in 2025?

11 December

Key points – The key themes for 2024 were: better than feared growth; global divergence; more disinflation; falling interest rates but with Australia lagging; and more geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared. As in 2023, returns were...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Trump 2.0: Why investors should expect a somewhat rougher ride, but it may not be as bad as feared

20 November

Key points – The economic and financial environment today is more challenging than when Trump first took over in 2017: inflation is a bit higher, the budget deficit is worse, bond yields are higher and shares are more expensive. – He also faces...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Five ways to turn down the noise, stay focussed (and survive Trump)

13 November

Key points – A surge in financial information and opinion along with our natural inclination to focus on bad news is arguably making us worse investors: more fearful and short-term focussed. – Five ways to help manage the noise and stay...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Donald Trump elected President of the US (again). Implications for investors and Australia

13 November

Key points – The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings the prospect of more US tax cuts and deregulation, but also more tariff hikes and trade wars and policy uncertainty. – His win was not the surprise it was in 2016, and markets...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights Why value matters in investing – and what are valuations telling us now?

30 October

Key points – Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings ratios – are key drivers of medium-term investment returns. – Valuation starting points for term deposits and bonds have improved. For shares they suggest...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights Nine bad habits of ineffective investors: common mistakes investors make

23 October

Key points – Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong. – As a result, it’s often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head. – The easiest way to avoid many of...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights China’s big stimulus – will it work? And what does it mean for Australia?

16 October

Key points – A move towards more aggressive fiscal policy stimulus and property support measures should help drive a mild cyclical upswing in China’s economy. – However, it’s doubtful it will be enough to reverse longer term structural...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights Harris versus Trump – implications for investors and Australia

9 October

Key points – The US election has significant potential to impact markets. A Harris victory would mean more of the same, but a Trump victory could lead to uncertainty particularly around trade. – Australia would be vulnerable to a rapid...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Shares around record highs as inflation slides – but what are the risks?

2 October

Key points – Recession risks, the escalating Israel conflict, the US election along with still stretched valuations mean a high risk of another share market correction and continued volatility. – The expansion of the war around Israel and Iran...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Will house prices crash? And what’s needed to fix housing affordability

28 August

Key points – Predictions of an Australian house price crash create lots of interest but have been a dime a dozen over the last 20 yrs. – However, there is more to the surge in property prices than easy money with a supply shortfall being the...[Read More]